What happened
On 4 November 2026, TVK's Madurai Central MLA Mustafa (Madhar Badhurudeen) said an AIADMK functionary from his area phoned him. He said the caller offered ₹15 crore now and another ₹15 crore when a no-confidence motion is brought. He has named no one and filed no police complaint; he told his party leadership. The AIADMK called the claim baseless and warned of legal action. Law Minister C.T.R. Nirmal Kumar said earlier offers of up to ₹60 to 70 crore had been made and that those involved had been arrested; the one case on record, a TVK MLA's complaint in July of a ₹35 crore offer, led to 14 arrests before the Madras High Court stayed the probe on 4 August. In May the DMK and AIADMK had accused TVK itself of horse-trading; on 19 June the Supreme Court dismissed a plea seeking a CBI probe into the trust vote as resting on allegations without reliable material.
Checked against sources
- TVK MLA Mustafa (Madurai Central) spoke to reporters at Madurai airport on 4 Nov 2026. He claimed he was personally offered ₹15 crore by AIADMK functionaries from his constituency in exchange for supporting a no-confidence motion. thesouthfirst.com
- Mustafa said the offer was ₹15 crore now and another ₹15 crore when a no-confidence vote is brought, ₹30 crore in all. He said he had informed the party leadership and that the people behind it would be named within a day or two. dtnext.in
- Law Minister C.T.R. Nirmal Kumar said on 4 Nov that offers of up to ₹60 to 70 crore had been made to MLAs earlier and that those involved had been caught and arrested, with hawala money traced in Bengaluru. These are his words about past offers, not a new offer this week, and not established facts. youtube.com
- The only case on record: in July 2026 a TVK MLA complained of a ₹35 crore offer; police registered an FIR, arrested 14 people (functionaries of both the DMK and the AIADMK among them, as reported) and seized ₹2.82 crore. On 4 August the Madras High Court stayed the probe; no charge sheet has been found. dtnext.in
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- As of 5 Nov the MLA had named no one and had not filed a police complaint; he said he had told the party leadership on 3 Nov and that the person behind it would come out in a day or two. newindianexpress.com
- The AIADMK called the claim baseless and warned of legal action; its former minister R.B. Udhayakumar said the MLA was making up stories (5 Nov). dailythanthi.com
- On 25 May 2026 the AIADMK, in EPS's name, condemned TVK for 'introducing horse-trading culture' ('குதிரை பேர கலாச்சாரத்தை அறிமுகப்படுத்திய'), and M.K. Stalin wrote of ''குதிரை பேரம்'' as AIADMK MLAs joined TVK. x.com
- On 9 Oct 2026 Vijay wrote that the people had answered the 'slanderous' talk that all sorts of bargains had taken place ('கண்டகண்ட பேரங்கள் நடந்ததாக அவதூறு பேசிய ...'). x.com
- On 19 June 2026 the Supreme Court dismissed a citizen's plea for a CBI probe into the 13 May trust vote, calling it based on 'vague, wild and casual allegations without any reliable material on record'. barandbench.com
- Promising money to a public servant, an MLA included, is itself an offence under section 8 of the Prevention of Corruption Act (as substituted in 2018): up to seven years in prison, a fine, or both. lawgist.in
- School Education Minister A. Rajmohan said on 1 Nov that someone offered him ₹5 crore for a cultural body's post; he named no offeror, and the DMK asked the anti-corruption bureau to register a case. dtnext.in
Going round, but unproven
This is the allegation of Mustafa and Nirmal Kumar. The reports found show no evidence, no recording, no named caller and no police finding. Calling it a joint plot is unproven, and the reports found carry no response from AIADMK or DMK.
This comes from a single minister's statement. No documents or agency findings were seen in this check.
Both numbers come from the same claim: ₹15 crore up front and ₹15 crore later. Mustafa's own account was an offer of up to ₹30 crore in two instalments, not a payment made.
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He told the party leadership on 3 Nov; The New Indian Express (5 Nov) reports no police complaint, and none was found as of 5 Nov evening.
With 122 against 106, eight crossing over make a 114 to 114 tie, which the Speaker breaks; it takes nine.
No Assembly rule sets a six-month bar on a no-confidence motion; the House has not sat since 8 September and has not been summoned.
The AI's take
My view, which is opinion: Mustafa's ₹15 crore plus ₹15 crore story is an allegation, not evidence.
He has named no caller and shown no call record, reports conflict on whether he has filed a complaint, and the AIADMK denies it.
It differs from May, when the charge was resign-and-join and the courts found no material; this one alleges money, which is a crime a complaint can name, and TVK's government has used the police before in July, so the same bar applies to everyone: show the call, the name or the case before calling it fact.
Why
- Mustafa named no caller and showed no recording. He promised names 'in a day or two' on 4 Nov. The New Indian Express says no complaint had been filed by the evening of 5 Nov, while Maalaimalar reports one, so the record conflicts. The AIADMK calls the charge baseless and warns of legal action.
- Promising money to an MLA is itself a crime under PC Act s.8, up to seven years, while being offered and refusing is no offence. So a real offer can be named in a complaint, as the Uthangarai MLA did in July with an FIR, arrests and ₹2.82 crore seized (reported), before the High Court stayed that probe on 4 Aug.
- The ₹60-70 crore figure is the Law Minister's number for past offers whose makers he says were arrested. It is not a new offer to the Madurai MLA, and no FIR with that figure was found. The 'joint DMK-AIADMK plot' is unproven: Mustafa spoke of AIADMK functionaries, and no recording, name or police finding has been shown.
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- May was different in kind, not in rhetoric. The charge was resign-and-join, and Stalin spoke of price-talking, but nothing was shown. The Madras High Court (16 June) found 'not even an iota of tangible material' on the resignations, and the Supreme Court (19 June) dismissed a citizen's PIL on the 13 May trust vote for 'no reliable material'. Nirmal Kumar's July line that it is horse-trading only if money is offered is TVK's own definition, but it is the line that makes today's claim the more serious one if proved.
- The claim is not absurd on the numbers. Nine TVK MLAs crossing would carry a no-confidence motion, and a rebel's vote counts even if he later loses his seat. But no motion can be moved until the House is summoned, and the '13 Nov six-month rule' talk is wrong.
What each side would say back
You are asking an MLA to prove a phone call, and the July FIR and the police inquiry show these offers are not imaginary. A rebel's vote counts, so the threat is real and an MLA should not wait for a recording before speaking up.
You are too soft on TVK. It took AIADMK MLAs in May and now plays victim. The party that called itself a 'pure force' should file a case, not hold a press talk at an airport.
Your standard is fair, but a charge with no name has been aimed at us, and the damage is done. A baseless allegation should earn a retraction, not just doubt.
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You go too easy on TVK. It brought horse-trading to Tamil Nadu in May and is now talking of bargains itself. The challenge to name the briber and get arrests should stand.
What would change its mind
If Mustafa names the caller, produces a call record, or files a complaint that leads to an FIR, I would treat the offer as established and the AIADMK denial as weakened. If the July case reaches a charge sheet, the claim that offers are really being made gets much stronger. If DMK or AIADMK leaders are shown to have approached MLAs, I would say the May charge now fits them too. If the names never come, I would keep calling it unproven and ask why a government that holds the police has not filed a case.
An AI model's take, reviewed for fairness. Not an endorsement.
The research
On Wed 4 Nov 2026 the TVK MLA for Madurai Central told reporters at Madurai airport that an AIADMK man from his area had phoned him offering ₹15 crore first and ₹15 crore more when a no-confidence vote is brought, ₹30 crore in all; he named no one, said he had told his party's leadership, promised names 'in a day or two', and had filed no police complaint by the evening of 5 Nov. The same day Law Minister C.T.R.
Nirmal Kumar said offers of ₹60–70 crore had been made to TVK MLAs since the count and that those who made them had been caught and arrested; the one police case on record is July's ₹35 crore complaint by TVK's Uthangarai MLA, whose probe the Madras High Court stayed on 4 Aug (reported), and the AIADMK called the Madurai MLA's charge baseless and warned of legal action.
The House arithmetic explains why the claimed offer comes in two halves: 229 MLAs sit, the government side has 122 votes to the opposition's 106, so nine TVK MLAs voting for a no-confidence motion would carry it (eight make a 114–114 tie that TVK's own Speaker breaks), and a vote cast against the whip still counts (Art. 189(2)) even though the MLA can then lose his seat under the Tenth Schedule.
Merely promising money to an MLA is a crime under the Prevention of Corruption Act s.8, punishable with up to seven years, while being offered and refusing is no offence, so a real offer can be named in a complaint.
The charge mirrors May: on 25 May, when three AIADMK MLAs resigned and joined TVK, the AIADMK (in EPS's name) condemned TVK for having 'குதிரை பேர கலாச்சாரத்தை அறிமுகப்படுத்திய' (introduced the culture of horse-trading) and Stalin wrote ''குதிரை வேக'த்தில் நடக்கும் 'குதிரை பேரம்'!'; on 19 June the Supreme Court dismissed a citizen's PIL seeking a CBI probe into the 13 May trust vote as 'vague and casual allegations without any reliable material', and on 9 Oct Vijay called the talk of bargains slander.
No camp has named a buyer, no motion can be moved until the House (adjourned sine die on 8 Sept) is summoned, and the 'six-month rule' said to open the door on 13 Nov does not exist.
Background
Tamil Nadu's Assembly has 234 seats. TVK won 108 on 4 May 2026 and governs with the Congress, VCK and IUML in the cabinet and the CPI and CPI(M) supporting from outside; it won its 13 May confidence vote with 144 votes, 25 of them from AIADMK MLAs who defied their whip. Six AIADMK MLAs then resigned and joined TVK; two won their seats back as TVK on 9 Oct, and five seats are vacant, so 229 MLAs sit.
A no-confidence motion can be moved only when the House sits (it was adjourned sine die on 8 Sept): 24 MLAs must stand for leave, and it passes on a majority of those present and voting, the Speaker (TVK's J.C.D. Prabhakar) voting only to break a tie. Under the Tenth Schedule an MLA who votes against his party's whip can be disqualified by the Speaker, but his vote still counts.
'Horse-trading' (குதிரை பேரம்) is every camp's word for buying MLAs, and since May every camp has used it about the other.
Who gains, who loses
For TVK, the government's survival on a 16-vote cushion that depends on two Left parties who say they will decide when a motion comes. For an MLA who crosses over, his seat, decided by TVK's own Speaker, against whatever he is promised. For the DMK and the AIADMK, the charge that they now try what they accused TVK of in May.
For ordinary people: a government that could change without an election while five seats already wait for by-polls, and, if any of these offers is real, a crime that nobody has yet put in a complaint.
What most coverage misses
Most coverage asked 'who?' and stopped. It missed why the claimed offer comes in two halves: a rebel's vote counts even if he then loses his seat, so the money is tied to the vote itself; and it takes nine TVK MLAs, not the 'about eight' many repeated.
It missed that promising the money is the crime (PC Act s.8, up to seven years) while being offered and refusing is none, so a real offer can be named in a complaint, as the Uthangarai MLA did in July.
It missed that the ₹60–70 crore was the minister's figure for past offers he says ended in arrests, not a new offer to the Madurai MLA; that the same parties traded the same charge in May with the sides swapped; and that the courts asked both sides for material (Supreme Court 19 June, High Court 16 June and 17 July).
The numbers
the offer the Madurai Central TVK MLA says an AIADMK man made him on the phone: half now, half when a no-confidence vote is brought (his claim, 4 Nov 2026)
youtube.comthe Law Minister's figure for offers made to TVK MLAs since the count, whose makers he says were arrested (his claim, 4 Nov 2026)
youtube.comthe offer in the only police case on record: TVK's Uthangarai MLA's complaint of 29 June 2026, to vote against the Speaker
thesouthfirst.comcash seized in the July case (reported); the probe was stayed by the Madras High Court on 4 Aug
test.uniindia.comShow more (8)
votes on the government side (TVK 108 without the Speaker, Congress 5, VCK 2, IUML 2, CPI 2, CPI(M) 2, the ex-AMMK MLA 1) against the whole opposition (DMK 59, AIADMK 41, PMK 4, BJP 1, DMDK 1): a 16-vote cushion (computed from the May result, the six resignations and the 9 Oct by-polls)
indiatvnews.comTVK MLAs who would have to vote for a no-confidence motion to carry it (115–113); eight make a 114–114 tie that the Speaker breaks
cdnbbsr.s3waas.gov.inseats filled today; five are vacant (Tiruchy East, Karur, Viralimalai, Perundurai, Ambasamudram), their by-polls held up by a Madras High Court stay
dtnext.inthe most a person who 'gives or promises to give' a bribe to a public servant can get under PC Act s.8 (or a fine, or both)
lawgist.invotes for the TVK government in its 13 May confidence vote, 25 of them from AIADMK MLAs voting against their whip
dtnext.inAIADMK MLAs who resigned and joined TVK between 25 May and 29 June 2026; two won their seats back as TVK on 9 Oct; none became a minister
theweek.inMLAs who must stand for a no-confidence motion to get leave (Rule 72); the motion is then taken within ten days, but only when the House sits
web.archive.orghow long an MLA would take to earn ₹15 crore at ₹1.8 lakh a month in pay and allowances (2026 Bill; 119 years at the ₹1.05 lakh in force)
prsindia.orgTimeline
- After MGR's death, the rival AIADMK camps keep their MLAs in a Chennai hotel and on a tour ending near Bangalore; at the confidence vote the Speaker disqualifies rival-camp MLAs before they can vote, and the Centre dismisses the government on 30 Jan 1988. thenewsminute.com
- EPS wins his trust vote 122–11 after AIADMK MLAs were kept for about ten days at the Golden Bay resort, Koovathur (from 8–9 Feb). thenewsminute.com
- The amended Prevention of Corruption Act comes into force: s.8 makes it a crime to 'give or promise to give' an undue advantage to a public servant, up to seven years. web.archive.org
- Seven judges of the Supreme Court (Sita Soren) hold that a legislator who takes a bribe for a vote has no immunity; the offence is complete when the bribe is accepted. lawchakra.in
- Vijay, in Erode: 'தி.மு.க. ஒரு தீய சக்தி … டி.வி.கே. ஒரு தூய சக்தி'. youtube.com
- Results: TVK 108 of 234, DMK 59, AIADMK 47, Congress 5, PMK 4, VCK, CPI, CPI(M), IUML 2 each, BJP, DMDK, AMMK 1 each. indiatvnews.com
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- The TVK government wins its confidence vote with 144 votes; 25 AIADMK MLAs vote for it against their party's whip. dtnext.in
- Three AIADMK MLAs resign and join TVK the same day; the AIADMK (in EPS's name) says TVK introduced the culture of horse-trading, and Stalin writes of horse-trading at horse speed. x.com
- The Madras High Court dismisses a PIL by an AIADMK member on the resignations: 'not even an iota of tangible material', 'a classic example of a fishing expedition'. barandbench.com
- The Supreme Court dismisses a citizen's PIL (W.P.(C) 761/2026, filed about 20 May) seeking a CBI probe into alleged horse-trading in the 13 May trust vote: 'vague and casual allegations without any reliable material on record'. livelaw.in
- TVK's Uthangarai MLA complains of a ₹35 crore offer to vote against the Speaker in a removal resolution; an FIR follows at Triplicane (30 June) under PC Act s.8 and s.12 and BNS 61(2)(a) and 351(3). thesouthfirst.com
- The Madras High Court refuses a CBI probe into the alleged poaching of TVK MLAs: 'newspaper reports and social media broadcasts cannot form the basis for a court to order the transfer'. livelaw.in
- The Madras High Court stays 'all further proceedings and the investigation' by the Triplicane police in the July case until 27 Aug, on pleas to move it to the CBI (reported). dtnext.in
- The Assembly's budget session is adjourned sine die; it has not been summoned since. test.uniindia.com
- Two of the ex-AIADMK MLAs win their seats back as TVK in the by-polls (TVK 107 → 109); Vijay writes that the people answered 'கண்டகண்ட பேரங்கள் நடந்ததாக அவதூறு பேசிய' talk. x.com
- The Supreme Court refuses to entertain a plea against the six AIADMK MLAs who resigned and joined TVK; Justice Bagchi: 'then let the FIR be investigated. Law will take its own course.' livelaw.in
- Morning, Madurai airport: the Madurai Central TVK MLA says an AIADMK man phoned him offering ₹15 crore first and ₹15 crore when a no-confidence vote is brought; noon: the Law Minister speaks of ₹60–70 crore offers whose makers he says were arrested; afternoon: Udhayanidhi, TTV Dhinakaran and the AIADMK IT wing post on X. youtube.com
- The AIADMK calls the MLA's charge baseless and warns of legal action (R.B. Udhayakumar, as DT Next renders him: the MLA is 'making up stories'); VCK's Thirumavalavan says he is not aware of any toppling attempt and allies will not withdraw; the Supreme Court is reported to dismiss a June writ on the May 'horse trading'. No name, no complaint from the MLA. dailythanthi.com
Claims checked
He said it on camera, but named no one, filed no police complaint by 5 Nov evening and showed no record of the call; the AIADMK denies it and warns of legal action. youtube.com
₹60–70 crore is the Law Minister's figure for past offers whose makers, he says, were caught and arrested ('மாட்டி அரெஸ்ட் ஆகி நிக்கறாங்க'); the Madurai MLA spoke of ₹15 crore + ₹15 crore. youtube.com
The government side has 122 votes, the opposition 106; eight crossing make 114–114, a tie the TVK Speaker breaks with his casting vote (Art. 189(1)); it takes nine (115–113). cdnbbsr.s3waas.gov.in
No such rule: Rule 72 needs 24 MLAs and a sitting; Rule 100 bars only an identical question in the same session. The House has not sat since 8 Sept, so nothing can be moved on 13 Nov. web.archive.org
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In Feb 2017 AIADMK MLAs were kept about ten days at the Golden Bay resort, Koovathur, before EPS's 18 Feb trust vote, which he won 122–11; in Jan 1988 rival AIADMK camps kept their MLAs in a hotel and a resort before a confidence vote. No money has been proved in those cases, or in TVK's. thenewsminute.com
The Supreme Court (19 June) found 'no reliable material' in a plea on the trust vote; the Madras High Court (16 June) found 'not even an iota of tangible material' on the resignations; on 26 Oct the Supreme Court called resigning to join part of the political process and said an existing FIR should be investigated. x.com
On 19 June it dismissed a citizen's PIL, filed about 20 May (before the parties' 25 May posts), seeking a CBI probe into the 13 May trust vote; the parties' own claims were not before it, and on 26 Oct, on the AIADMK resignations, it said 'let the FIR be investigated'. livelaw.in
The only case with arrests found is July's ₹35 crore complaint; no FIR with a ₹60–70 crore figure was found, the High Court stayed that probe on 4 Aug (reported), and no charge sheet has been found. dtnext.in
It is the same Madurai Central MLA under his registered name (ECI result; the Law Minister's own post of 31 Oct). x.com
Both are in the same answer on the same clip: ₹15 crore first, ₹15 crore at the vote, ₹30 crore in all. youtube.com
No names, no letters, no notice of a motion; TVK has 109 MLAs including the Speaker. youtube.com
As reported, the Madras High Court on 4 Aug stayed 'all further proceedings and the investigation' by the Triplicane police until 27 Aug; its status after that was not found. dtnext.in
PC Act s.8 punishes whoever 'gives or promises to give' an undue advantage to a public servant with up to seven years, a fine or both; MLAs are public servants. lawgist.in
Findings
His own voice, YouTube Tamil auto-captions (Polimer 00:57–01:10): 'முதல் 15 சிஆர் வாங்கிக்கோங்க. நாங்க வந்து நம்பிக்கையில்லா வாக்கெடுப்பு கொண்டு வருவோம். அப்போ நீங்க வந்து பாத்தீங்கன்னா 15 சிஆர் வாங்கிக்கோங்கன்னு சொல்லி இருக்காங்க' and (01:31–01:37) 'அண்ணா திமுகாக்காரர் இந்த பகுதியை [சேர்ந்தவர்] எனக்கு தொடர்பு கொள்றார்'. Same clip on Malaimurasu, Times Now Seithi and Red Talkies. He also said the AIADMK and DMK did it together. That he said it is confirmed; whether the offer was made is his claim. Polimer News (YouTube), 2026-11-04
Captions 01:10–01:12 ('நான் தலைமைக்கு நேத்து போய் அத வந்து தெரிவிச்சிருக்கேன்') and 02:07–02:17 ('ஓரொரு நாள்ல வந்து யார் இத செஞ்சான்னு வெளியில வரும்'); TNIE 5 Nov: 'When asked whether a police complaint was lodged, the MLA said the person behind it will come to light in a day or two.' Searches of 12 outlets' sitemaps, X and his own X account to 19:30 IST 5 Nov found no name and no complaint. Re-check on 6 Nov. The New Indian Express, 2026-11-05
Arithmetic on verified counts: 234 seats, 5 vacant (Tiruchy East, Karur, Viralimalai, Perundurai, Ambasamudram), 229 sitting, Speaker J.C.D. Prabhakar (TVK) not voting. Government side: TVK 108 + Congress 5 + VCK 2 + IUML 2 + CPI 2 + CPI(M) 2 + the expelled ex-AMMK MLA 1 = 122. Opposition: DMK 59 + AIADMK 41 + PMK 4 + BJP 1 + DMDK 1 = 106. Art. 189(1): questions are decided by a majority of those present and voting; the Speaker has a casting vote in a tie. With x TVK MLAs crossing: 106 + x against 122 − x; x = 9 gives 115–113. If the four Left MLAs and the ex-AMMK MLA abstained, six would do; TVK MLAs merely staying away would need 17. An inference from the counts, checked by the fresh verifier. Constitution of India (Legislative Department)
Tenth Schedule para 2(1)(b) (disqualified 'if he votes or abstains from voting … contrary to any direction issued by the political party', unless condoned within 15 days) and para 6(1) (the Speaker decides); Art. 189(2): proceedings 'shall be valid notwithstanding that … some person who was not entitled so to do sat or voted'. Kihoto Hollohan (1992): a whip whose breach can disqualify is limited to 'a vote on motion of confidence or no confidence' or a matter integral to party policy. Supreme Court of India, Kihoto Hollohan v. Zachillhu, 1992-02-18
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An inference (the reel's analysis), from the MLA's own words tying the second ₹15 crore to the no-confidence vote and from Art. 189(2) and the Tenth Schedule. No evidence that any such offer was made. Malaimurasu (YouTube), 2026-11-04
PC Act s.8 (as substituted in 2018): 'Any person who gives or promises to give an undue advantage to another person … shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to seven years or with fine or with both'. s.7 (taking): 3 to 7 years, needs that a public servant 'obtains or accepts or attempts to obtain'. Sita Soren (2024), para 188.11: 'The offence of bribery is complete at the point in time when the legislator accepts the bribe'. MLAs are public servants under s.2(c)(viii). The s.8 duty to report within seven days is for a person compelled to give, not for the one offered. India Code, Prevention of Corruption Act 1988 (archived)
His own voice, NewsTamil 24X7 live (Tamil auto-captions 00:06–03:02): 'அவங்க எல்லா முயற்சியும் செஞ்சு பாத்துட்டாங்க. 60 கோடி 70 கோடி வரைக்கும் … ஆபர் கொடுத்து அப்பதான் மாட்டி அரெஸ்ட் ஆகி நிக்கறாங்க' and 'கரூரை சேர்ந்த ஒரு முக்கியமான நபர்கள் எல்லாம் கைது செய்யப்பட்டாங்க'. Puthiya Thalaimurai's post and Daily Thanthi print the same. The only police case found is July's ₹35 crore; no FIR with a ₹60–70 crore figure was found. NewsTamil 24X7 (YouTube), 2026-11-04
Udhayakumar's statement as printed: 'ஒரு கதை விட்டிருக்கிறார்', 'குறுக்குவழியில் ஆதாயம் தேடவேண்டிய அவசியம் அதிமுகவுக்கு இல்லை', 'சட்ட நடவடிக்கையை எதிர்கொள்ள வேண்டியிருக்கும்'. DT Next 5 Nov: the AIADMK called it 'baseless' and Udhayakumar said the MLA was 'making up stories'. The IT wing, 4 Nov 16:11 IST: 'குதிரை பேரம்? யாரை? உங்களை?' (https://x.com/AIADMKITWINGOFL/status/2117930113518145902). The DMK and BJP also denied involvement (Bombay Samachar, 5 Nov). Daily Thanthi
AIADMK's official X post of EPS's signed statement, 25 May 2026: 'குதிரை பேர கலாச்சாரத்தை அறிமுகப்படுத்திய தமிழக வெற்றிக் கழகத்திற்கு கடும் கண்டனம்!'; Stalin on X the same evening: ''குதிரை வேக'த்தில் நடக்கும் 'குதிரை பேரம்'!' (https://x.com/mkstalin/status/2058881919362936914). Six AIADMK MLAs had resigned and joined TVK by 29 June; none became a minister. AIADMK on X, 2026-05-25
SC, 19 June 2026, a citizen's PIL (W.P.(C) 761/2026) seeking a CBI probe into the 13 May trust vote: 'This writ petition is based on vague and casual allegations without any reliable material on record' (Verdictum; Bar & Bench prints 'vague, wild and casual allegations'). The parties' own 25 May claims were not before it. Madras HC, 16 June, an AIADMK member's PIL on the resignations: 'not even an iota of tangible material'. Madras HC, 17 July, on poaching of TVK MLAs: 'newspaper reports and social media broadcasts cannot form the basis for a court to order the transfer'. SC, 26 Oct, on the AIADMK resignations: 'then let the FIR be investigated'. Bar & Bench, 2026-06-19
South First (2 July) prints the FIR's sections: PC Act s.8 and s.12, BNS s.61(2)(a) and s.351(3). Arrest totals differ by report (12 to 14 by 19 July); ₹2.82 crore seized from two finance-firm owners (UNI, 19 July). DT Next, 4 Aug: the HC stayed 'all further proceedings and the investigation' until 27 Aug. Status after 27 Aug not found. Nothing is proved in court; the accused are not named here. South First, 2026-07-02
@TVKVijayHQ, 9 Oct 2026 17:13 IST, after the Madurantakam and Dharapuram by-poll wins: 'கண்டகண்ட பேரங்கள் நடந்ததாக அவதூறு பேசிய மிருகக் குணப் பேச்சுக்கு எல்லாம் மக்கள் தகுந்த பதிலடியைத் தரமாகத் தந்துள்ளனர்.' No comment from Vijay on the 4 Nov claims was found. Vijay on X, 2026-10-09
TNM (23 Feb 2017): over 100 MLAs from 8–9 Feb until the vote; Scroll/PTI: won 122–11 after the DMK was evicted. A June 2017 sting claimed pay-offs; both MLAs denied it and the HC declined a probe (29 June 2017): no money is asserted here. In Jan 1988 the rival AIADMK camps also kept their MLAs in a hotel and a resort. The News Minute, 2017-02-23
TN Legislative Assembly Rules, Rule 72: leave needs 24 members to rise, and the motion is taken within ten days; Rule 100 bars only a 'substantially identical' question 'in the same session'. No rule bars a motion for six months after a confidence vote. The budget session was adjourned sine die on 8 Sept; Art. 174(1) puts the next session by about 8 March 2027. Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Rules (archived)
Thirumavalavan, 5 Nov, Madurai: 'I am not aware whether attempts are being made to topple the government, but it is confirmed that the allied parties supporting the TVK government are not going to withdraw their support' (DT Next). CPI's M. Veerapandian, 3 Nov: 'தமிழக அரசு மீது நம்பிக்கையில்லா தீர்மானம் கொண்டு வரப்பட்டால் இந்திய கம்யூனிஸ்டு கட்சி அப்போது முடிவெடுக்கும்' (Daily Thanthi). DT Next, 2026-11-05
ECI's 2026 result for Madurai Central (archived copy) names the TVK winner MADHAR BADHURUDEEN (63,414 votes, beating P. Thiaga Rajan by 19,128); no 2026 winner anywhere is named Mustafa. The Law Minister's own post of 31 Oct calls the Madurai Central MLA 'திரு. மதார் பதூருதீன்'; DT Next 5 Nov: 'Madhar Badhurudeen, popularly known as Mustafa'. C.T.R. Nirmal Kumar on X, 2026-10-31
Shrimanth Balasaheb Patil (SC, 13 Nov 2019): the government lost its trust vote on 23 July 2019; disqualification 'does not vaporise by tendering a resignation letter', but the Speaker cannot bar contesting. TNM, 9 Dec 2019: the disqualified MLAs won 11 of the 12 seats the BJP took in the by-polls; ten were sworn in as ministers on 6 Feb 2020 (PTI). The News Minute, 2019-12-09
Sita Soren, paras 8–14 and 188: the Rao government survived the 1993 no-confidence motion 265–251; in 1998 the bribe-takers who voted were held immune under Art. 105(2); in 2024 the Court overruled this, noting the 'paradoxical outcome' that the one who took money and voted as paid was immune while the one who took it and voted otherwise could be prosecuted. The CBI's 'over Rs 3 crore' was its allegation; the MPs were never tried. Supreme Court of India, Sita Soren v. Union of India, 2024-03-04
L.A. Bill 18 of 2026 (published 7 Sept): vehicle allowance ₹25,000 → ₹75,000 and a new ₹25,000 PA allowance, so ₹1,05,000 → ₹1,80,000 a month; its commencement notification was not found. ₹15,00,00,000 ÷ ₹21,60,000 a year = 69.4. The salary itself is ₹30,000; the press's ₹2.05 lakh double-counts the old vehicle allowance. PRS Legislative Research (Tamil Nadu Bill 18 of 2026), 2026-09-07
YouTube commentary (Arasiyal Sadhurangam, 126K views, 6:03–9:46: 'if you don't disclose the name you are protecting him'; its top comment asks the MLA to tell the voters the truth); Instagram's most-liked news card on the story (Puthiya Thalaimurai, 5,300 likes, 980 comments), where the substantive comments say 'you are the government: file it, play the recording'. Much of the rest is mockery of the man, with communal jabs: not repeated. Arasiyal Sadhurangam (YouTube), 2026-11-04
TNM, 4 Nov 2025: an AIADMK-elected MLA joined the DMK in Stalin's presence and resigned the same day; Asianet (21 Jan 2026) and Maktoob (27 Feb 2026) report two more; The Week (27 Nov 2025): K.A. Sengottaiyan resigned and joined TVK. SC, 26 Oct 2026: resigning to join is part of the political process. The News Minute, 2025-11-04
What they said before
'தி.மு.க. ஒரு தீய சக்தி … டி.வி.கே. ஒரு தூய சக்தி' (the DMK is an evil force, TVK a pure force). youtube.com
Condemned TVK for having introduced the culture of horse-trading to Tamil Nadu ('குதிரை பேர கலாச்சாரத்தை அறிமுகப்படுத்திய தமிழக வெற்றிக் கழகத்திற்கு கடும் கண்டனம்!'), in a way 'தமிழக அரசியல் வரலாற்றிலேயே இல்லாத வகையில்' (unprecedented in Tamil Nadu's political history). x.com
Won his own trust vote 122–11 after the party's MLAs were kept about ten days at the Golden Bay resort, Koovathur (a fact; no money is asserted). scroll.in
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''குதிரை வேக'த்தில் நடக்கும் 'குதிரை பேரம்'!': said TVK was price-talking ('விலை பேசுவது') with an AIADMK faction for the trust vote and inducting resigning AIADMK MLAs at the Secretariat. x.com
Said Vijay became Chief Minister through horse-trading despite lacking a majority ('குதிரை பேரங்களின் மூலமாக முதலமைச்சர் ஆகியுள்ள விஜய்'). x.com
An AIADMK-elected MLA joined the DMK in his presence and resigned his seat the same day (lawful; no money alleged). thenewsminute.com
Joining TVK after resigning 'எவ்வகையிலும் குதிரை பேரம் ஆகாது'; 'சட்டமன்ற உறுப்பினர்களைப் பணம் கொடுத்து விலைக்கு வாங்க முயற்சி செய்தால் மட்டுமே அது குதிரை பேரம் ஆகும்' (it is horse-trading only if one tries to buy MLAs with money). chennaionline.com
'கண்டகண்ட பேரங்கள் நடந்ததாக அவதூறு பேசிய …' : the people had answered the talk of bargains, which he called slander. x.com
'தமிழக அரசியலில் முதன்முறையாகக் குதிரை பேரத்தை அறிமுகப்படுத்தி, மைனாரிட்டி ஆட்சியை நடத்தி வரும் தவெக, தற்போது குதிரை பேரம் குறித்துப் பேசுவது, சாத்தான் வேதம் ஓதுவதற்கு இணையானது' (TVK, which he says first introduced horse-trading in Tamil Nadu, talking of it is the devil quoting scripture); the charge is a diversion. (His party's lone MLA voted for TVK on 13 May and was expelled.) x.com
The Congress 'cannot support horse-trade politics that weakens democracy', inside Tamil Nadu or outside. dtnext.in
Of the TVK candidate who beat him in Madurai Central: 'I am happy that I lost to the candidate who did not pay cash for votes.' x.com
Not aware whether attempts are being made to topple the government; the allies will not withdraw support; he believes TVK's MLAs would not be that weak. dtnext.in
If a no-confidence motion is brought, the CPI will decide then. dailythanthi.com
Still open
- Who phoned the Madurai Central MLA, and will he name him or go to the police (he promised names 'in a day or two' on 4 Nov)?
- Is the Madras High Court's 4 Aug stay of the July probe still on, did the case go to the CBI, and is there a charge sheet?
- How would the CPI, the CPI(M) and the expelled ex-AMMK MLA vote on a no-confidence motion?
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- When will the Governor summon the Assembly (by about 8 March 2027 at the latest)?
- Will the Speaker decide the AIADMK whip's pending disqualification petitions by the High Court's deadline of about 13 Dec?
- What exactly did the Supreme Court's 5 Nov order on the June writ say, and which bench?
- Did the TVK MLA who in July claimed 'clear evidence' of a ₹30–100 crore offer ever produce it?
Sources · 48
Show more (40)
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